54 The global market for secondary and protective packaging is projected to reach $300.7 billion by 2030, driven by the accelerating rise of e-commerce and intensifying focus on sustainability, according to a new report from Smithers, produced in association with Packaging Innovations & Empack 2026. E-commerce is now the fastestgrowing segment, surpassing consumer durables, non-durables, and industrial packaging. Smithers data shows that European e-commerce secondary packaging volumes will rise 45 percent by 2030, compared to just 10.5 percent growth across the overall market. In volume terms, e-commerce packaging is expected to increase from 4.7 million tonnes in 2023 to 6.8 million tonnes in 2030, versus 30.6 to 33.8 million tonnes for the total volume of secondary packaging. This shift means UK packaging demand is increasingly driven by warehouses, couriers, and returns rather than supermarket shelves, with implications for corrugated investment, pEPR fees, and recycling infrastructure. Paper-based solutions are overtaking plastic. Paper fill is forecast to grow at 3.9 percent CAGR in Western Europe to 2030, driven by automated dispensers in e-commerce fulfilment centres. Types of paper fill include twisted paper, Kraft paper void fill, and flexi-wrap moulded pulp, which are replacing bubble wrap, air pillows, and foam. In the UK, paper is increasingly chosen not just for sustainability but for operational reasons by avoiding the Plastic Packaging Tax, reducing EPR penalties, and suiting kerbside recycling. Consumer expectations are clear: recyclability dominates. A 2025 McKinsey survey shows that 77 percent of UK consumers rate recyclability as extremely or very important, compared with just 41 percent for biobased materials. Consumers also value recycled content (62–66 percent) and compostability, but above all they want products that arrive undamaged and well-cushioned, even if that means slightly larger packaging. This highlights a growing tension: minimal packaging is not always the most sustainable solution. Returns and reshipping often create more emissions than slightly larger boxes or additional Smithers, in partnership with Packaging Innovations & Empack 2026, reveals how rapid growth in online retail, paper-based innovations, and EU regulatory changes are transforming secondary and protective packaging PACKAGING TRANSFORMED
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